Is flying safe?

 

Is flying safe?

A friend of mine has a family member who is concerned about flight safety so here is my take. Is flying safe? In a word, no. But that depends on how you define “safe.” If safe means no risk then few things meet that standard. “Does flying have an acceptable level of risk?” is a more reasonable question. We will restrict our discussion to airline travel in the United States.

As a pilot we speak about risk management. It is a systematic way of analyzing potentially hazardous activities and managing the risks. We start by looking at the severity of a category of risk and addressing the most catastrophic things first. We must also balance this by understanding the likelihood of events. A single engine failure on a aircraft with two engines has potentially severe consequences if not managed precisely. The likelihood of such an event is statistically low but since the stakes are high we train extensively on these scenarios. I will outline risk management without too much technical jargon.

The first rule is to accept no unnecessary risk. That infers that there are necessary risks. So how safe is air travel? As far as risks go it is well managed. Dividing risks into different areas helps to recognize and thus better plan for ways to mitigate risks and trap errors. Let us look at the pilot, the aircraft, the environment and the operation. We will briefly look at each area.

The pilot includes all crew members. We tend to fly with at least a pilot, a co-pilot, flight attendants and perhaps other personnel. The aircrew works as a team. Airline operations require at least two pilots. They are extensively trained and evaluated on a regular basis. Our cabin crew is an extremely valuable part of the equation. Flight attendants are there primarily for the safety of the passengers. All US aircraft have to be able to evacuate in less than two minutes. They practice these procedures regularly but you probably do not. So the next time the flight attendant gives a safety briefing, pay attention since they are going to help everyone get off the aircraft.

Modern aircraft are robust designs with multiple redundant safety systems in place. Maintenance personnel are extensively trained and conduct regular inspections and preventive maintenance to ensure airworthiness. The aircrew and ramp personnel also inspect the aircraft before and after every flight. The aircraft is designed and tested to fly with one engine. We tend to have triple redundancy designed into many critical components. For example, we have three independent altimeters and only one is required. During our recurrent training we practice multiple scenarios many of which are modeled after previous events.

The environment presents many hazards. Thunderstorms, snow, ice, and congested airspace are a few of the factors to consider. A common mitigation strategy is exemplified by how we handle low clouds and reduced visibility. If the weather at the destination is below certain standards we have to plan for an alternate destination far enough away to have better weather. This includes adding extra fuel. Sometimes a flight will be “weight restricted” and we cannot fill every seat because we have to carry extra fuel. During our recurrent training we are trained and evaluated in the simulator for very challenging conditions.

Finally the operation dictates much of the residual risk and ultimately the level of “safety.” There are several layers of planning and oversight for every flight. The dispatcher plans every flight applying all the procedures for the primary airport, the alternate if required, the route, fuel and load planning. At many airlines there is a separate department obsessing over planning the loads. The aircrew reviews the dispatched plan and makes the final decision to conduct the flight or consults with dispatch to make appropriate changes. External organizations such as air traffic control, airport personnel, and TSA provide an added layer of oversight and control.

A large number of highly trained professionals are working hard to make sure airline operations are “safe.” We realize that we can only manage risk to an acceptable level and each component has fallible humans involved. We are taught to use checklists and other methods such as challenge and reply to trap errors. An example would be when the pilot monitoring says “landing gear” the other pilot responds “down three green.” This may seem simple and redundant but actually having both crew members confirm that an item is properly configured minimizes and/or traps errors.

When I was teaching people to fly I would tell them “There is nothing hard about flying; two or three hundred really easy things that will kill you if you do not get them right, but, nothing hard.” Is flying safe? The safest airplane is the one sitting in the hanger but that is not why airplanes were built. 'Is taking an airline flight an acceptable risk?' is a more realistic question.